Here’s a comprehensive and up-to-date look at the world economy in 2025.
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The IMF forecasts global economic growth at 3.0% in 2025 — up slightly from its previous forecast — and is expected to pick up to 3.1% in 2026. While growth has improved slightly thanks to forward-looking purchases and more stable financial conditions, risks from inflation and policy uncertainty remain.
The OECD has a more cautious forecast, predicting growth of 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026. The slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and China. (OECD)
The World Bank has again predicted that global growth could fall to 2.3%, marking the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, although there is no clear prospect of a global recession.
The United Nations also gave an average figure, forecasting growth to fall from 2.9% (2024) to 2.4% (2025), down 0.4 percentage points compared to the forecast at the beginning of the year.
Other expert forecasts
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EY: Global growth forecast to reach 3.0% in 2025, slowing from 3.2% in 2024. Growth in developed countries will slow to around 1.3%, while emerging and developing markets will hold around 4.1%. China to slow to 4.4%, India to remain strong at 6.6%. (EY)
European Union (EU): GDP growth forecast to be 1.1%, with eurozone lower at 0.9%. Inflation to fall faster than expected, nearing target.
Key Factors and Impacts on the Global Economy
Trade War & Protectionism
The sharp increase in tariffs from the US under President Trump—from 10% to 20–25% on China, with additional tariffs on steel, autos, and electronics—has sent shockwaves through global markets and created prolonged uncertainty.
The impact is clear: the “Liberation Day” event on October 2–10, 2025, led to a global stock market crash, followed by a recovery wave due to tariff relaxation.
Global Investment & Capital Flows
Capital flows outside the US are strong—funds investing in Asia (excluding Japan) and Europe have recorded record returns for the past 4.5 years, while funds focused on the US have seen outflows. This reflects concerns about US policy and the strong US dollar.
China – a sign of weakening “Peak China”?
“Peak China” – China’s growth potential has peaked, as population declines, productivity stagnates, real estate declines, and debt-fueled growth patterns become increasingly apparent. GDP per capita is only 20% of that of the US.
Supply Chain Restructuring & “Linking Strategy”
According to Goldman Sachs, the global supply chain is no longer driven by low costs but is heavily influenced by security, geopolitics, and frontline diversification. Direct investment in China has fallen sharply, instead increasing sharply in Vietnam and Mexico.
Chinese Real Estate Industry – Evergrande
Evergrande’s delisting in Hong Kong truly marks a serious real estate crisis. The debt repayment rate is very small compared to total debt—only a few hundred million out of tens of billions of dollars. The government only provides local support, no nationwide stimulus package.
Energy – OPEC revises forecast
OPEC raises 2025 global economic growth forecast to 3.0% (previously 2.9%), and forecasts global oil demand to increase by about 1.29 million barrels/day this year. The US is expected to grow by ~1.8%, the eurozone by ~1.2%.
Global Trade
The WTO forecasts global trade to grow by just 0.9% in 2025, with Asia as the main driver, while North America continues to stagnate due to weak domestic demand and trade tensions.
Quick Summary: Global Economic Outlook 2025
Content Average Forecast Global Growth Varies Around 2.4% – 3.0% Key Risks Trade Protectionism, Geopolitics, Inflation Growth Focus India Strongest (~6%), China Declining (~4–4.5%) Global Trade Very Weak, Up Only ~0.9% Supply Chain & Investment Shift Away from China, Prioritizing Security China Real Estate Continues to Struggle, No Big Stimulus Energy Oil Demand Rising, OPEC Has a Positive Outlook
